Well, I already got the Patriots -12. I don’t think it will get any lower than that, and if it does, so much the better. Bill Belichick is having fun right now with the Brady foot shell game. The team is totally relaxed, and have been waiting for THIS game, for 2 months. I think they will win and win BIG.
Whenever you look at a game to bet, You must start with who you think will actually win the game. In this case That’s the Patriots. They are the best of the two teams.
If you really don’t think an underdog can win a game outright, there is no sense in betting them. If this game is played 10 times on a neutral warm weather field, the Giants maybe win 1 out of ten outright, they may stay close 2 out of 10, and one of those has already happened., so now they have 2 chances out of 9 to stay within the number.
The Patriots won more games against better opponents all year, and especially in the play-off, sure they did’t cover those games, but they were against the Jaguars, and Chargers, in the COLD, both far superior teams to the Giants. It is safe to say the Buccs were not that impressive, the Cowboys were not good again in December-January, and the Packers youth and aging QB were not at their best in sub zero. The Giants got a very favorable draw in the play offs and to their credit took advantage of it. Although I doubt they could have won in .
Look at the QB’s. Enough is said with Brady, he had an MVP year, and is a super bowl VET. He had his worst game of the year against the Chargers, and is not likely to repeat that performance. MEANWHILE lets look at the body of work for Eli Manning. Which Eli is likely to show up ? The one from the last 4 weeks, with NO PICKS, or the one we know very well? I say its the regular old Eli, and he is due to for a bad game and a few picks..
The Giants MO-mentum is interrupted by the week off, the NY media hype, ticket requests, the parties, and the general spotlight. Of the two teams they are the MOST “just happy to be here” I don’t think they have anything left. It could take them a whole half to get into the game , and they could be down 3 TD’s by then.
The Patriots are not distracted by Super week, and know the drill. They were bored having to play 2 play off games in the cold, to get to the Super Bowl, if they were going to be upset, it was the last two games, NOT the Super Bowl. They will be focused this time, all of the players will want to score TD’s for history sake, and if they want to be remembered as a GREAT team , they will have to do better than three separate 3 pt Super Bowl wins in the 4th qtr. They are tired of hearing about that, and they have the team that wants to better than those Cowboys who blew out the Bills, or the 49ers who blew out the Chargers.
Yeah it’s fun to root for the Giants, they did a great job to get where they are , but they are way over their heads, and I need a 50-50 shot to take the dog here, and its just not there.
The Patriots are a bargain at -12. The warm weather works for them, and the lay off hurts the Giants, who will likely go back to the team we saw most of 2007. Patriots win 62-16