Patriots and Belichick are Having Fun

Well, I already got the Patriots -12. I don’t think it will get any lower than that, and if it does, so much the better. Bill Belichick is having fun right now with the Brady foot shell game. The team is totally relaxed, and have been waiting for THIS game, for 2 months. I think they will win and win BIG.

 Whenever you look at a game to bet, You must start with who you think will actually win the game. In this case That’s the Patriots. They are the best of the two teams.

If you really don’t think an underdog can win a game outright, there is no sense in betting them. If this game is played 10 times on a neutral warm weather field, the Giants maybe win 1 out of ten outright, they may stay close 2 out of 10, and one of those has already happened., so now they have 2 chances out of 9 to stay within the number.

The Patriots won more games against better opponents all year, and especially in the play-off, sure they did’t cover those games, but they were against the Jaguars, and Chargers, in the COLD, both far superior teams to the Giants. It is safe to say the Buccs were not that impressive, the Cowboys were not good again in December-January, and the Packers youth and aging QB were not at their best in sub zero. The Giants got a very favorable draw in the play offs and to their credit took advantage of it. Although I doubt they could have won in Seattle.

Look at the QB’s. Enough is said with Brady, he had an MVP year, and is a super bowl VET. He had his worst game of the year against the Chargers, and is not likely to repeat that performance. MEANWHILE lets look at the body of work for Eli Manning. Which Eli is likely to show up Feb. 3? The one from the last 4 weeks, with NO PICKS, or the one we know very well? I say its the regular old Eli, and he is due to for a bad game and a few picks..

The Giants MO-mentum is  interrupted by the week off, the NY media hype, ticket requests, the parties, and the general spotlight. Of the two teams they are the MOST “just happy to be here” I don’t think they have anything left.  It could take them a whole half to get into the game , and they could be down 3 TD’s by then.

The Patriots are not distracted by Super week, and know the drill. They were bored having to play 2 play off games in the cold, to get to the Super Bowl, if they were going to be upset, it was the last two games, NOT the Super Bowl. They will be focused this time, all of the players will want to score TD’s for history sake, and if they want to be remembered as a GREAT team , they will have to do better than three separate 3 pt Super Bowl wins in the 4th qtr. They are tired of hearing about that, and they have the team that wants to better than those Cowboys who blew out the Bills, or the 49ers who blew out the Chargers.

Yeah it’s fun to root for the Giants, they did a great job to get where they are , but they are way over their heads, and I need a 50-50 shot to take the dog here, and its just not there.

The Patriots are a bargain at -12. The warm weather works for them, and the lay off hurts the Giants, who will likely go back to the team we saw most of 2007. Patriots win 62-16

Old Guys Get Cold

Bad weather , hot or cold, is always hardest on the old guys. Did you See the FOX set with Jimmy, Howie, and Terry? those guys looked 10 years older. and So did Brett Favre. He is not what he used to be, and the icy cold brought it out. It is just harder for those over 3o to function in sub zero temps. he mentioned this after the Bears game, and we should have been listening, he never used to say things like that after cold games. It is also true that the Packers players were not ready for the game with the giants, as much as they were for the Seahawks. You would have thought a trip to the Super Bowl would motivate them. The Packers had at least ten chances to win the game, getting break after break, right down to TWO missed FG’s by the giants, and then getting the coin toss in OT, with Brett and home field, it should have been easy. But they just didn’t want it as much.

I was right on with the Chargers, they did have a chance to win their game, but you can’t do it with field goals, you need TD’s. before the game, If I had said the chargers would have 4 trips to the red zone, Brady would throw 3 picks, you never would have been believed me. I really thought the patriots would be little flat and they were, now they have two weeks and will easily take care of the Giants, I bet the Patriots – 12 today. and I will go into the Super Bowl game in more details later on.

Beating the Patriots Not Unlikely

Look, I like the Patriots as much as the next guy, it’s great to see a team do what hasn’t been done before. But it’s been a month since they have covered a point spread. They are not playing like they did in September and October- More important the teams they are playing now are much better. Last week was a very uninspired team. The pats are non invincible.

In February of 2002, No one and I mean NO one gave the patriots a chance of winning Super Bowl XXXVI, the Rams were 14 pt favs, and just  TOO good, remember?  Last week, myself , maybe two other guys outside of California, and Frank Caliendo were they only ones who said the Chargers could win, remember the colts were too good. You can go back to several games , all the way to Joe Namath’s Jets, against the Colts, where it was just assumed the Colts would win. Things happen.

The patriots have not exactly been stopping anybody’s offense except the dolphins in the last six-7 weeks. They have been waltzing through games expecting to win, they look bored. The kicker misses easy field goals. They seem to be playing not to lose.  This doesn’t mean they can’t or won’t win by 3 touchdowns on Sunday. But I have seen much more shocking results, than if the Chargers win in Foxboro. The patriots more than anyone are DUE for a bad game and a loss, if not this game, certainly the next. So That’s why I bet the Chargers this week.

They have more than a chance to keep this game close, surprise the pats and be in a  position to win. The patriots could alos be looking past this week, and find themselves in a fight, in the cold, and not be ready for it. .

 The Chargers have plenty of talent and motivation to show up . Several people picked the Chargers to go to Super Bowl, well, they have done nothing but win and cover eight straight times, I think its very short sighted to dismiss them, just because the media has already decided that the patriots have already won Superbowl XLII. I bet the Chargers+14.5, and a little on the money line.Oh and the other game , I got the packers -6 last Sunday night. The giants are done.

Football Friday lets Go SEA-men!

On Monday, when I was telling you to bet LSU, and i’m sure you did, i mentioned I already bet the Seahawks+8.5. I may get more saturday as the packer backers flood the sports book. I looked at The Pack & Brett Favre’s last 4 play-off performances, and was not that impressed , 1 overtime win, 3 losses.  Not that impressive. The value is in the points, could be another overtime game.

I think the Jag love all week is going to motivate the Patriots, I already bet them -12.5, but if you are looking for a small value play, you can get 5.5 to one , if you bet the jags on the money line.

Sunday, as i mentioned earlier this week, I bet the Cowboys-7, I dont see any new results from the last 2 meetings of these teams, much like the rams beat the seahawks three times a few years back.

And everyone has abandoned the Chargers, except me. Getting 10 or more is a huge deal, for a team that should be able to run the ball, and they have a chance to win outright, we havent had any repeat superbowl entries recently. I bet the Chargers +10.5, to keep it close.

Seahawks Blow out Redskins

On to the next round! The east coast media again is bias against Seattle . They turn in the best performance against the hot redskins, and the media dismissed them. Good. Maybe they will wake up after the beat up the Packers.  The seahawks showed how dominant they were winning by 3 touchdowns, the biggest blow out of the weekend, yet all the media would cover AFTER the game was the losing locker room, instead of covering the winning performance of the seattle defense, and clutch passing by Matt Hasselbeck. The seahawks will be very close in Green Bay, and have  75% chance to win the game , You can get 8.5 now, I’m looking to bet the Seahawks +10. after all the suckers bet the packers up.

The Cowboys game will be a blow out, as NFL teams with a bye in the playoffs, playing NON division winners, usually win big. The giants have nothing left, and proved their point, won their play off game, and I bet Dallas-7, at the Hilton sunday. I also bet the Patriots-11, its too much to ask the Jaguars to do it again, on the road , in the cold, against a team like the New England. I will be looking to the Chargers later this week, when all the dolts bet the colts. Tonight in the BCS Championship I already bet LSU -3, weeks ago, and Im sticking with it. They saw what USC and Georgia did, and will try and run it up at home in the dome against Ohio State, so Les Miles can run his yap about how good his team is and that they deserve to be champs. I would love to see Ohio State win, but I have to back LSU with my money.

Wild Card Weekend

Are your ready for some football? I am . People forget that Seattle is just too tough at home, and even on the road at times, they were an overtime field goal from beating the Bears last year, and probably back to the super bowl.

I bet two teams to make it to win  the super bowl. Seattle at 40-1, and San Diego at 25-1. Thats my Prediction, Seahawks- Chargers in Super Bowl XLII

No team has EVER , I mean EVER beat the steelers at home twice in one season. Thats the only stat I need. I bet Pittsburgh+3. On Sunday, I bet the Buccs-2 last week, I dont think the gianst have any thing left and will turn the ball over in Tampa. And while i feel the chargers will win as well, I bet the Titans +10.5, to keep it close in the windy maybe raindy 55 degree day in San Diego. Last year the home teams on Wild Card week were 4-0. I see that again this year.

Funniest Momment On ESPN Gameday

Of this whole seasaon, this was the funniest thing I saw on the Gameday set. On New Years Day, at the end of the show, Old man Lee Corso Hiding under the desk, with his USC gear on , waiting for his cue, ine “headgear segment”.

Kirk and Chris, could not contain themselves and it was a classic moment, sorry if you missed it.

Bowling Wrap Up

Well, now that the 2007 Bowl season is over, sorry i really dont count  worthless bowls played in canada. – Time to vent..

The All State Sugar Bowl was a never ending story. Why did it take 4.5 hours to play a non-overtime game? The Capital One Bowl was the best game, of the season. Ig Michigan had played like that against Ohio State, Lloyd Carr would still have  a job, USC or Oklahoma, would have been playing LSU, and West Virginia would have a chance in their bowl.

The bets I made and posted here, in the Bowls went 17-8-1, 6-0 on New Years Day. Its the only day of the year I know I will get the best effort from every team.